There have been many recent pieces written about how a resurgent Mac is a threat
to Linux. This particularly hit fever pitch when Apple decided to jump
ship to Intel CPUs.
The notion that the Mac is either a short or long-term threat to Linux
is wrong for a number of different reasons. 10 in fact. Recounted below.
In reality the obverse is true - a broadly successful Mac OS X platform
is a great benefit to Linux. In order to see why, we have to understand
what the roadblocks to broader Linux desktop adoption are and why the
growing Mac market helps clear these.
There are different roadblocks for different market segments. Different
things block Linux adoption on a corporate desktop, from a small
business desktop, from a home computer desktop, from a gamer's desktop.
So, let's start counting the reasons why a growing Mac presence in the
market will help Linux.
1) Web-sites.
Many web sites are Internet Explorer-only, either through design or poor
practice. Now that the Mac defaults to Safari as its web browser, an
increasing number of web sites will feel extra pressure to move away
from supporting an IE-only policy. This will help all other browsers,
most of which are on Linux, which in turn helps reduce the barriers to
broader Linux adoption in all markets.
2) ISV Support.
Many ISVs target Windows-only platforms. If OS X reaches over 10% of
the market, these ISVs will see that supporting non-Windows platforms is
an actual market positioning advantage. And market advantages are
normally pounced upon by vendors in any competitive marketplace.
This will increase the likelihood that these ISVs will use
non-Microsoft-only platform application tools and frameworks, many/most
of which also support Linux. Therefore, the cost to these ISVs of also
supporting Linux when they broaden application support to include OS X,
is minimal or nothing.
So, they might as well support Linux because it too might "do an OS X"
in the near future and become yet another rising platform that they will
have to support. So, they might as well plan ahead and do a broadening
support shift once only. It costs less and places them ahead of their
competitors.
Thus broadening ISV support for OS X will (in most instances) also
benefit Linux. It certainly wont disadvantage it.
3) A Shift in Mindset.
For most computer users, a PC and Windows are one and the same thing.
For many users, Microsoft Office is also synonymous with Windows and the
PC, and they often use the term 'Windows' to refer to their
word-processor or web browser, or 'Word' to refer to Windows. For most
users, a computer and Microsoft are one and the same thing.
A major increase in the use of any alternate platform therefore breaks
the hegemony that Microsoft has. It will force a shift in people's
mindset. They can't simply think of a PC implying Windows, as an
increasing number of their friends have a PC which runs a non-Windows
platform. They can't think of a word-processor being Word, as many home
users with Macs will use Apple's word processor, not Microsoft's.
4) Expanding the Comfort Zone.
I can't prove it, but gut-feel tells me that any user who migrates from
Windows to the Mac will be far more comfortable in subsequently
migrating from an OS X interface to a Linux interface (KDE/Gnome). It's
fairly self-obvious really: if you've discovered that a Windows
interface isn't the only interface, if you've had to re-tool your mind
and muscle memory to shift to one alternative, any subsequent jump is
far, far less threatening.
But why would OS X users jump to Linux and not back to Windows? Well,
many of them might like the fact that they suddenly hit fewer bit-rot
problems on a non-Windows PC. They might like the fact that they hit far
fewer virus, spyware and key-logger problems now that they've moved away
from Windows. They might like the freshness of difference a
non-Microsoft platform and mindset brings. They might like the access to
several thousand free open source apps which have been ported to run on
the Mac's X Window interface. There are many good reasons.
Time to quote Oliver Wendell Holmes: "The mind, once expanded to the
dimensions of larger ideas, never returns to its original size."
Regardless of why various new OS X users might jump over to Linux, it
seems likely that many of them, if they do decide to jump off the Mac,
are likely to try Linux before returning back to Windows.
Therefore, any increase in the Mac's mindshare and adoption will also
raise those users' comfort levels to perhaps try Linux.
5) Bursting Microsoft's Momentum Bubble.
One of the reasons Microsoft 'wins' so often in the marketplace is that
the marketplace expects Microsoft to win. This therefore becomes a
self-fulfilling prophecy. Anything which perturbs this process is a
serious threat to Microsoft.
If, suddenly, Microsoft has a one-in-three chance of losing a desktop PC
sale to Apple, the market will understand that Microsoft no longer
commands complete control of the desktop market. That market is now open
and in flux. It becomes easier for any alternative to play in this
fluctuating market and compete against Microsoft. Linux is the prime
alternative to gain in a fluctuating market, when that market perceives
that Microsoft's momentum is impeded.
6) A Broader Price Spectrum.
While the new mini-Macs are a cool and well priced device, and Apple's
laptops have historically been good overall value, much of the remainder
of Apple's desktop range is out of the cost radar for many of the
world's PC users.
Any initial push towards the Mac, by those who can afford it, may
therefore serve only as promulgating a wave that Linux rides, due to its
far broader price spectrum. By this I mean that while you can buy a
US$500 Mac, you can't buy a $200 one. You can buy a US$200 Linux PC
however, which more than suits most users.
7) Applications.
While the Mac comes with some cool and slick apps, it's not a patch on
the breadth offered by any common user-oriented Linux distro. It's not
likely that Apple will bundle a whole range of software which might be
of interest to the corporate world, the small business world or the home
market. Linux distribution vendors have no such qualms.
Therefore, if I want remote corporate desktop display client software
for Linux, it will be there, out of the box. If I want an accounting
package for my small business for Linux, it will be there, out of the
box. If I want a recipe manager, or a music notation program or a
thousand other educational or miscellaneous tidbits for Linux, it will
be there, out of the box.
This is a major market benefit to many forms of consumers: "No need to
download and install anything. Linux ships with 5,000 apps. It's likely
that your needs are covered."
All you need is their attention, and getting them out of the Microsoft
mindspace is the best way of getting that attention. The Mac can do this
with aplomb.
8 ) But isn't Linux less friendly than Mac OS X?
Perhaps. In some ways. But none that really matter to most non-technical
users. Sure, OS X looks slicker than Linux. But no, most users want only
a handful of applications and have only a handful of functions they want
to perform. And for most users, Linux performs these tasks just as
effectively, if not as elegantly, as OS X does. Remember, many consumers
buy home-brand product. Linux is the home-brand equivalent in their
eyes.
9) It's the Vendors, Stupid.
While a resurgent Mac is wonderful for Apple which supplies both the
hardware and system software, where does that leave the 5,000 other PC
vendors from around the world? Nowhere, really.
If these vendors catch a whiff of change in the PC marketplace, with
Microsoft's hegemony no longer looking unassailable, they have two
options. One is to try and licence OS X from Apple. We've seen that
disaster movie before, right? The other is to find an alternate
platform, which is kinda not Windows and kinda like OS X: Linux.
10) Freedom.
In the end, it's all about freedom. And while OS X's core is based on
the open source and libre Darwin Mach/BSD derivative, very little else
is - there is very little freedom within the Mac space.
It's either Apple's way or the bye-way.
So, try as hard as you can to convince yourself that Apple is somehow
not going to 'do a Microsoft' on its users. I've followed Apple in the
marketplace for 26 years - I have no such expectations waiting to be
dashed.
to Linux. This particularly hit fever pitch when Apple decided to jump
ship to Intel CPUs.
The notion that the Mac is either a short or long-term threat to Linux
is wrong for a number of different reasons. 10 in fact. Recounted below.
In reality the obverse is true - a broadly successful Mac OS X platform
is a great benefit to Linux. In order to see why, we have to understand
what the roadblocks to broader Linux desktop adoption are and why the
growing Mac market helps clear these.
There are different roadblocks for different market segments. Different
things block Linux adoption on a corporate desktop, from a small
business desktop, from a home computer desktop, from a gamer's desktop.
So, let's start counting the reasons why a growing Mac presence in the
market will help Linux.
1) Web-sites.
Many web sites are Internet Explorer-only, either through design or poor
practice. Now that the Mac defaults to Safari as its web browser, an
increasing number of web sites will feel extra pressure to move away
from supporting an IE-only policy. This will help all other browsers,
most of which are on Linux, which in turn helps reduce the barriers to
broader Linux adoption in all markets.
2) ISV Support.
Many ISVs target Windows-only platforms. If OS X reaches over 10% of
the market, these ISVs will see that supporting non-Windows platforms is
an actual market positioning advantage. And market advantages are
normally pounced upon by vendors in any competitive marketplace.
This will increase the likelihood that these ISVs will use
non-Microsoft-only platform application tools and frameworks, many/most
of which also support Linux. Therefore, the cost to these ISVs of also
supporting Linux when they broaden application support to include OS X,
is minimal or nothing.
So, they might as well support Linux because it too might "do an OS X"
in the near future and become yet another rising platform that they will
have to support. So, they might as well plan ahead and do a broadening
support shift once only. It costs less and places them ahead of their
competitors.
Thus broadening ISV support for OS X will (in most instances) also
benefit Linux. It certainly wont disadvantage it.
3) A Shift in Mindset.
For most computer users, a PC and Windows are one and the same thing.
For many users, Microsoft Office is also synonymous with Windows and the
PC, and they often use the term 'Windows' to refer to their
word-processor or web browser, or 'Word' to refer to Windows. For most
users, a computer and Microsoft are one and the same thing.
A major increase in the use of any alternate platform therefore breaks
the hegemony that Microsoft has. It will force a shift in people's
mindset. They can't simply think of a PC implying Windows, as an
increasing number of their friends have a PC which runs a non-Windows
platform. They can't think of a word-processor being Word, as many home
users with Macs will use Apple's word processor, not Microsoft's.
4) Expanding the Comfort Zone.
I can't prove it, but gut-feel tells me that any user who migrates from
Windows to the Mac will be far more comfortable in subsequently
migrating from an OS X interface to a Linux interface (KDE/Gnome). It's
fairly self-obvious really: if you've discovered that a Windows
interface isn't the only interface, if you've had to re-tool your mind
and muscle memory to shift to one alternative, any subsequent jump is
far, far less threatening.
But why would OS X users jump to Linux and not back to Windows? Well,
many of them might like the fact that they suddenly hit fewer bit-rot
problems on a non-Windows PC. They might like the fact that they hit far
fewer virus, spyware and key-logger problems now that they've moved away
from Windows. They might like the freshness of difference a
non-Microsoft platform and mindset brings. They might like the access to
several thousand free open source apps which have been ported to run on
the Mac's X Window interface. There are many good reasons.
Time to quote Oliver Wendell Holmes: "The mind, once expanded to the
dimensions of larger ideas, never returns to its original size."
Regardless of why various new OS X users might jump over to Linux, it
seems likely that many of them, if they do decide to jump off the Mac,
are likely to try Linux before returning back to Windows.
Therefore, any increase in the Mac's mindshare and adoption will also
raise those users' comfort levels to perhaps try Linux.
5) Bursting Microsoft's Momentum Bubble.
One of the reasons Microsoft 'wins' so often in the marketplace is that
the marketplace expects Microsoft to win. This therefore becomes a
self-fulfilling prophecy. Anything which perturbs this process is a
serious threat to Microsoft.
If, suddenly, Microsoft has a one-in-three chance of losing a desktop PC
sale to Apple, the market will understand that Microsoft no longer
commands complete control of the desktop market. That market is now open
and in flux. It becomes easier for any alternative to play in this
fluctuating market and compete against Microsoft. Linux is the prime
alternative to gain in a fluctuating market, when that market perceives
that Microsoft's momentum is impeded.
6) A Broader Price Spectrum.
While the new mini-Macs are a cool and well priced device, and Apple's
laptops have historically been good overall value, much of the remainder
of Apple's desktop range is out of the cost radar for many of the
world's PC users.
Any initial push towards the Mac, by those who can afford it, may
therefore serve only as promulgating a wave that Linux rides, due to its
far broader price spectrum. By this I mean that while you can buy a
US$500 Mac, you can't buy a $200 one. You can buy a US$200 Linux PC
however, which more than suits most users.
7) Applications.
While the Mac comes with some cool and slick apps, it's not a patch on
the breadth offered by any common user-oriented Linux distro. It's not
likely that Apple will bundle a whole range of software which might be
of interest to the corporate world, the small business world or the home
market. Linux distribution vendors have no such qualms.
Therefore, if I want remote corporate desktop display client software
for Linux, it will be there, out of the box. If I want an accounting
package for my small business for Linux, it will be there, out of the
box. If I want a recipe manager, or a music notation program or a
thousand other educational or miscellaneous tidbits for Linux, it will
be there, out of the box.
This is a major market benefit to many forms of consumers: "No need to
download and install anything. Linux ships with 5,000 apps. It's likely
that your needs are covered."
All you need is their attention, and getting them out of the Microsoft
mindspace is the best way of getting that attention. The Mac can do this
with aplomb.
8 ) But isn't Linux less friendly than Mac OS X?
Perhaps. In some ways. But none that really matter to most non-technical
users. Sure, OS X looks slicker than Linux. But no, most users want only
a handful of applications and have only a handful of functions they want
to perform. And for most users, Linux performs these tasks just as
effectively, if not as elegantly, as OS X does. Remember, many consumers
buy home-brand product. Linux is the home-brand equivalent in their
eyes.
9) It's the Vendors, Stupid.
While a resurgent Mac is wonderful for Apple which supplies both the
hardware and system software, where does that leave the 5,000 other PC
vendors from around the world? Nowhere, really.
If these vendors catch a whiff of change in the PC marketplace, with
Microsoft's hegemony no longer looking unassailable, they have two
options. One is to try and licence OS X from Apple. We've seen that
disaster movie before, right? The other is to find an alternate
platform, which is kinda not Windows and kinda like OS X: Linux.
10) Freedom.
In the end, it's all about freedom. And while OS X's core is based on
the open source and libre Darwin Mach/BSD derivative, very little else
is - there is very little freedom within the Mac space.
It's either Apple's way or the bye-way.
So, try as hard as you can to convince yourself that Apple is somehow
not going to 'do a Microsoft' on its users. I've followed Apple in the
marketplace for 26 years - I have no such expectations waiting to be
dashed.
on July 25, 2005, 1:38 am
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